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A study published in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with 12 pathogens accounted for about 2.3 million of the 20 million cancer cases diagnosed worldwide in 2024. HPV, Helicobacter pylori, hepatitis B and Epstein-Barr virus were linked to about 92% of infection-attributable cases; vaccine coverage and access remain uneven.
A global analysis published in The Lancet Oncology estimates that infections with viruses, bacteria and parasites accounted for about 2.3 million cancer cases in 2024 — roughly 12% of the 20 million new cases recorded worldwide. The findings point to vaccination and infection prevention as ways to reduce some cancer risk, while highlighting that access to prevention is uneven across countries.
The researchers examined 12 pathogens associated with cancer, using estimates from the Global Cancer Observatory’s GLOBOCAN database alongside published data on infections among people with specific cancers. The result is an estimate of cases attributable to infection, rather than a count of individually confirmed causes.
Four pathogens accounted for about 92% of the infection-linked cases, according to the analysis. Helicobacter pylori, a bacterium that infects the digestive tract, was associated with about 760,000 cases, primarily gastric cancers. Human papillomavirus (HPV) was linked to about 750,000 cases, including cervical, penile, throat and mouth cancers.
Hepatitis B was associated with about 360,000 cases, mainly through its effects on the liver, while Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) was linked to about 260,000. EBV is associated with certain throat and stomach cancers and lymphomas. These figures are the study’s estimates for 2024, not forecasts or evidence that every infection will lead to cancer.
Prevention Could Reduce Some Cancer Risk
The results matter because several infections tied to cancer can be prevented or controlled, including through HPV and hepatitis B vaccines. Preventing an infection can lower the chance of cancers associated with it, but vaccination does not prevent every cancer, and the study does not claim that all infection-related cases can be avoided.
Coverage remains far below the World Health Organization’s target for HPV vaccination. The report says that in 2024, 31% of eligible adolescent girls worldwide had received at least one dose, compared with the WHO target of 90%. The gap is particularly relevant because the analysis estimates that low- and middle-income countries carry 77% of the infection-driven cancer burden; about 81% of HPV-linked cancers occurred in those countries.
Dr. Prashant Mathur, director of India’s National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research, who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that infection prevention should be considered alongside other cancer risk factors. He said estimates for India suggest that 50% to 60% of cancers may be avoidable when factors including tobacco, alcohol, diet, physical activity and environmental pollution are considered together. That is a broader estimate, not a finding specific to infections or to this study.
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Vaccines and Uneven Coverage
HPV vaccines are intended to prevent infections with cancer-causing HPV types, and hepatitis B vaccination can prevent infection that may lead to liver cancer. The article reports that the WHO recommends HPV vaccination for girls and that coverage varies considerably between countries. High-coverage programs have shown substantial benefits, though results from specific countries or age groups should not be treated as proof that every cancer has been eliminated.
Dr. Rebecca Perkins, an obstetrician-gynecologist at Tufts University School of Medicine who was not involved in the study, told Live Science that research in Australia, England and Finland found no HPV-related cancers or deaths among young adults vaccinated by age 13. She also said that a single-dose HPV schedule, supported by recent trials, could make campaigns easier by reducing costs and the need for follow-up visits. The source does not provide the trial details or establish that every country has adopted this approach.
There is no approved EBV vaccine, according to the report. Claire Shannon-Lowe, a tumor virologist at the University of Birmingham who was not involved in the study, said EBV’s complex entry into cells and its persistence in the body make vaccine development challenging. Although infection is common — the article says up to 95% of people have been infected by adulthood — most infected people do not develop an associated cancer.
“The biggest misconception from families is that the HPV vaccine is not needed or that it can wait.”
— Dr. Rebecca Perkins, Tufts University School of Medicine, speaking to Live Science
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Limits of the Global Estimates
The total of 2.3 million cases is an estimate assembled from cancer registry data and published studies linking infections to particular cancers. The source does not give a case-by-case confirmation method or uncertainty ranges for each pathogen, so the figures should be read as modeled estimates rather than exact counts.
The analysis identifies cancers attributable to the selected pathogens, but it does not show how many could be prevented through vaccination alone. Prevention also depends on vaccine availability, uptake, timing and other measures to prevent or treat infections. The report notes that EBV has no approved vaccine, and it does not quantify the likely effect of a future vaccine.
The source also raises questions about national policy and implementation. It reports uneven HPV vaccination rates and mentions a recent U.S. change to the hepatitis B birth-dose recommendation, but does not provide state-by-state coverage figures or quantify how that policy change could affect future infections and cancer cases.
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Expanding Prevention and Tracking
The immediate public health task described by experts is to close gaps in access to existing HPV and hepatitis B vaccines and to maintain programs that prevent and detect related infections. A single-dose HPV schedule may simplify campaigns where health authorities adopt it, but the article does not identify a timetable for broader use.
Researchers and health agencies will also need to monitor vaccination coverage and infection-linked cancer trends over time, especially in countries carrying much of the burden. For EBV, vaccine development remains a research challenge rather than an available prevention option. The study provides a global estimate for 2024; the source does not specify a follow-up study date or a next publication milestone.
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Key Questions
The study estimates that about 2.3 million of 20 million new cancer cases worldwide in 2024 were attributable to 12 cancer-associated pathogens. It is a modeled global estimate, not a claim that every individual case has a proven infectious cause.
Which infections accounted for most of the cases?
H. pylori, HPV, hepatitis B and EBV together accounted for about 92% of the infection-linked cases in the analysis. The study estimates about 760,000 cases linked to H. pylori, 750,000 to HPV, 360,000 to hepatitis B and 260,000 to EBV.
Can vaccines prevent infection-related cancers?
HPV and hepatitis B vaccines can prevent infections associated with some cancers and can reduce related cancer risk. They do not prevent every cancer, and the study does not calculate how many of the estimated cases vaccination alone could avert.
Is there an Epstein-Barr virus vaccine?
No approved EBV vaccine is reported in the source. EBV infection is common, but most infected people do not develop an associated cancer; vaccine development remains an area of research.
Source: fediverse
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